I do allude to those analyses in a footnote (search for "deranged level of optimism.")
Ehrlich's proposed second wager was on metrics like "average global temperature," which Simon rejected because it didn't seem tightly-coupled enough to the outcomes he directly cared about. And so far, they've both been right: temperatures rise, but human prosperity rises too. As far as I know the only major point of disagreement where Ehrlich was right was the loss of biodiversity, which Simon managed to be skeptical about but come on.
Very strong and persuasive post. I wonder what it is we are getting wrong now, or missing? Do you have thoughts? We are worried about so much--what should we NOT be worried about that we are? What should we be worried about that we're NOT? And most importantly, what should we be doing about any of it?
Great post, Aaron, one of your best. I have to read it over again and think very hard about what you say. There's a lot here for me to take in, a lot, speaking as an old environmentalist (and a Jersey Boy). Yes, how fitting that you and I talked about this on Yom Kippur.
For more nuanced opinions than this piece of generic triumphalist "there are no limits" guff, see:
Kiel, Katherine; Matheson, Victor; Golembiewski, Kevin (May 2010). "Luck or skill? An examination of the Ehrlich–Simon bet".
and
Lawn, Philip (September 2010). "On the Ehrlich–Simon bet: Both were unskilled and Simon was lucky".
There is also Ehrlich's second wager on different trends, which he would have won.
I do allude to those analyses in a footnote (search for "deranged level of optimism.")
Ehrlich's proposed second wager was on metrics like "average global temperature," which Simon rejected because it didn't seem tightly-coupled enough to the outcomes he directly cared about. And so far, they've both been right: temperatures rise, but human prosperity rises too. As far as I know the only major point of disagreement where Ehrlich was right was the loss of biodiversity, which Simon managed to be skeptical about but come on.
Very strong and persuasive post. I wonder what it is we are getting wrong now, or missing? Do you have thoughts? We are worried about so much--what should we NOT be worried about that we are? What should we be worried about that we're NOT? And most importantly, what should we be doing about any of it?
Just a wonderful piece. Made me so sad and angry, but with some real hope poking through it all too. May this one go far far far.
That was a good one, Aaron.
Great post, Aaron, one of your best. I have to read it over again and think very hard about what you say. There's a lot here for me to take in, a lot, speaking as an old environmentalist (and a Jersey Boy). Yes, how fitting that you and I talked about this on Yom Kippur.